"What a victory!", "What domination!", "A Watershed moment of Indian politics.", "AAP's the BAAP!", "5 saal Kejriwal!", "The mufflerman strikes back!" etc, the whole of nation was abuzz with catchphrases like these the moment the picture became clear that Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was going to clean sweep Delhi assembly elections 2015. That's right! The party which was written off by almost all the political pundits around our Bharat did the unthinkable. A 67/70 (96%) result is no less than a miracle. It's like the result of a 12th passout for whom a St. Stephen's principal will himself stand at the gates to embrace the kid with a Munnabhai Jaadu ki jhappi and escort to the block. This is truly remarkable, unthinkable, unprecedented, unparalleled and what not! But how did this happened. The Rags to riches story of the AAP was full of twists and turns. It was like a Dan Brown Sci-fi thriller which keeps its readers on the hinges.
This post is a bird eye view of most (if not all) the factors that culminated into this miracle. The post also takes into consideration the promises made by AAP and tries to answer the most important FAQ - "Are they feasible?". Moreover, the post is also an attempt to answer some other questions (that matter) like - "What's the significance of these results?", "What's the future of the politics in the country post these results?". So, overall this post attempts to take a panoramic view of the situation at hand.
The first important set to study is the one of the factors/events that led to AAP's phenomenal victory,
OPPOSITION
It's a maxim that sometimes your enemy helps you more that your friend, in achieving your victory. This election saw something similar. The party which was touted as the frontrunner, ever since Shri. Arvind Kejriwal resigned, helped AAP the most. Let's consider first the BJP's (Bharatiya Janata Party) case,
1. Negative Campaign - This election BJP indulged in a mud slinging rally like never before. From calling Shri. Arving Kejriwal a Bhagoda to carrying out false campaigns, the BJP simply saw no limit. This had a seriously negative effect on the psyche of the voters. It appeared as if the BJP had lost its mind and had no issue whatsoever to counter AAP. Moreover, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi's caveat to the people (in a rally speech) that if BJP loses than Delhi may not get the right amount of development (centre's help!), was another nail in the coffin.
2. Communalism - Post the 16th Lok Sabha elections the BJP's brother in arm, RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) and its affiliates have indulged in a whole new level of communalism. From forced religious conversions (in the garb of Ghar Wapsi Movement) to church vandalism, from Love Jihad to some of their MPs' provocative speeches, the events have cast a long and dark shadow on BJP's image.
3. Leader choice - BJP's choice of CM candidate Smt. Kiran Bedi also didn't pay off. From bad timing to her lack of oratory skills (perception and presentation wise), it all backfired. It was once advised that if AAP needs to garner some extra votes then its people should encourage the voters to watch Smt. Kiran Bedi's interviews.
4. The Real Face - Even after anointing Smt. Kiran Bedi as their Chief Minister (CM) candidate, BJP ran the campaign in the name of the prime minister. Yes, this strategy worked out really well in all other state assembly elections post Lok Sabha polls but these Delhi elections were a totally different cup of tea. Here, there was no anti-incumbency against AAP. Unlike other states, BJP's main opposition, for a change, was not Indian National Congress. Hence the tried and tested formula didn't work this time around. Also, the fact that it will be Smt. Kiran Bedi and not Shri. Narendra Modi who will run Delhi (if BJP voted to power) also turned the tables in AAP's favour.
5. BJP's work - BJP's promises during the Lok Sabha campaigns haven't yielded much results so far. How many new factories have been opened in the last 9 months? How many jobs created? Have the food prices come down substantially? Has there been any new investments? The answers to these questions don't nod in BJP's favour.
6. Funding controversy - The timing of the funding controversy (as alleged by their breakout faction AAP Volunteer Action Manch (AVAM)) regarding the so called two crore donations by sham companies also raised eyebrows about the timing of the entire episode. The question asked was - "Why now?". Also the way AAP took the allegations head-on is something worth a mention.
If we talk about the grand old party of India, INC then there isn't much to say. The party has been losing one election after another. The situation is so worse that this time around, it drew a blank. Some of the reasons for their debacle are -
a. Lack of leadership
b. Lack of organisation
c. Defections
d. Tainted Image (post multiple scams - 2G, Commonwealth et al)
e. Lack of credibility
f. Media's role in exposing
Other parties simply didn't figure in the scheme of things this time, so let's move on.
ALTERNATIVE
With so many flaws in the main parties (BJP and INC) people were looking for a suitable alternative. The reason why BJP won in other states was due to a lack of alternative to the incumbents. People there had no other (better) choice than the BJP. The anti-incumbency factor (against INC) was present in Delhi too but here, with BJP, there was another good (and new) alternative in AAP. Also, people like change. It's human nature to try something new. With a shoddy track record, almost all other parties ended up being second to AAP.
THE DELHITES
A closer look at Delhi's demography (a 60-70% change since 1970s) can make one realize the one big factor that contributed to AAP's stunning victory. It's the aspirations of the masses of Delhi. From lower to upper rungs, everyone voted for AAP. The reason is simple. They are fed up with the treatment that previous ruling dispensations have meted out to them. Rampant corruption (and with it harassment) has always been the biggest issue for the masses (in realization of their dreams). And AAP's politics revolved around this one issue. BJP was banking upon the purvanchalis (the immigrants from UP and Bihar) but even they too voted for AAP. There was a clean sweep and the message was clear.
AAP's BRAND OF POLITICS
AAP's brand can be aptly described in just one word - Intoxicating. Their anti-corruption stand attracted one and all. Accountability is in every AAP message. Be it disclosing their funding details (on their website) or be it their long standing demand of a strong lokpal, they have created their own "Anti-corruption" brand. Moreover, the clean image of their CM candidate, Shri. Arvind Kejriwal only adds to the mix. AAP has been able to transform itself into a strong anti-corruption force. And the results are in front of us. This time around, they were able to register an increase of 25 lac voters (as compared to previous polls). This speaks volumes.
AAP's EFFORTS
A special mention should be made of AAP's relentless campaigning post the Lok Sabha drubbing. Those polls came on the heels of a Kejriwal resignation (after just 49 days of government). The people were not happy and it showed in the Lok Sabha polls. A lot of lost ground had to be recovered and AAP didn't disappoint. They got straight to work. While others started campaigning only just before the polls, the AAP had already done the damage. The door-to-door campaigns (explaining the resignation decision and apologising) worked wonders and the trust (lost) was regained. They also found a number of fake voters (during these campaigns) which they reported to Election Commission. This too proved decisive.
ROLE OF MEDIA
Social Media, Radio, Newspapers, News Channels, Autorickshaws etc, AAP was everywhere. Only BJP could match AAP's media presence. This proved to be a deciding factor.
Let's now move on to the promises galore made by AAP and others. If one takes up the manifesto/vision document of any party that contested the elections then one may hear the inner voice saying - "Arrey fenkne ki bhi had hoti hai yaar". There were no limit when it came to making promises. Anyone who knows even a percent of Delhi's woes will straight away reject all the parties, after going through the documents. So the question is - Why (then) did Delhites chose AAP? Well there is one simple answer to this that they chose the lesser of the evils in the fray. The promises made by all the parties are, simply put, impractical.
Take the example of reduction of electricity tariff by 50%. On one hand, AAP promised a reduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) (which is the most important source of revenue, around 67% of revenue collections.) and on another they promised something that will require extra subsidies and in turn extra revenues. Where are they going to get the money? (Also, out of the collected revenues, 50% goes to non-plan expenditure. Hence serious revenue crunch) Also their arch rivals (BJP) control both the centre as well as Municipalities. Another important promise was on the front of women's safety. The police is controlled by the centre (BJP).
The common sense is why will BJP take decisions that help AAP. After all they too will be trying to regain the lost ground. So, how are they going to implement their measures. Simply put they lack both the tools and staff.
The common sense is why will BJP take decisions that help AAP. After all they too will be trying to regain the lost ground. So, how are they going to implement their measures. Simply put they lack both the tools and staff.
Similarly they talked about setting up 20 new universities (Education front) in Delhi. But where's the land? It may actually take them more than 5 years to just acquire land for the buildings. Then there are issues involved with construction (so many permissions). With the slow and disinterested machinery on hand, the universities might never come up.
Then there is the promise of providing 700 litre of free water. Actually that's feasible if the leakages are plugged. Normally the leakages are around 15-18% (in other states) but in Delhi it's around 40%. But again the machinery required to check and implement is with the BJP.
In a nutshell, AAP may be having an unprecedented majority in the assembly but when it comes to the implementation machinery and the resources required, they may fall short big time.
SIGNIFICANCE
These results in more than one way significant. Firstly, there is a message for all the political parties that people are desperate for results and may go with any new alternative. Secondly, after a long time a election has been won with an anti-corruption agenda. Thirdly, the political parties need to understand that people are becoming aware of their voting power, which can make or break a government. This is happening due to rise in income, education, media reach etc.
Now the politics in India has taken an interesting turn. AAP may truly decide the nature of politics that takes place for decades to come. Assessing AAP right now will be too naive. They have only been voted to power. The real game begins now. One one hand, if AAP delivers (seems difficult given the factors mentioned above) then it may have a rub off effect on other parties. This way we may have clean politics in future. On another, if AAP fails to delver (let's say they are not able to fulfil even 20% of their promises) then people may actually lose confidence in politics altogether. In a nutshell, these results have far reaching effects in the sense that the tide could turn either way - a watershed moment (for good) in Indian politics or a trigger for a slow death of democracy. Obstacles are many but let's hope there will be more discussions than dharnas this time around.
